Calm Thursday, then rain and a northwest blow Friday night

Thursday is the quiet day: northeast winds and waves of 1 to 3 feet from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay, then rain overnight. Friday brings periods of rain, waves building to 5 to 8 feet and northwest winds to 30 knots Friday night. Check the NWS marine forecast before you head out on Lake America (Lake Ontario). Data was gathered Thursday morning, October 15.

Conditions this week

The GLERL daily lake-average surface temperature on October 14 was 60.9 F, down 1.1 F over seven days. Buoy 45215 off Oswego read 60.8 F with 3.0 foot waves. Buoy 45012 north of Rochester read 57.6 F with 2.0 foot waves and wind of 12 knots gusting 16 from 40 degrees. The east end buoy 45135, off Mexico Bay/Henderson, read 57.4 F. Buoy 45139 sits at the far west end of the lake, about 41 miles west of Olcott, and read 60.6 F. The Oswego and Rochester water temperature stations had no data.

The NWS nearshore forecast for Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay, issued 4:04 AM Thursday:

• Friday: south winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west, periods of rain, waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet, occasionally around 10 feet.
• Friday night: northwest winds to 30 knots becoming north, waves 5 to 9 feet.
• Saturday: north winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots, waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
• Sunday: southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south, mainly clear, waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
• Monday: southwest winds 5 to 15 knots, waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday and Monday look like the calmest days in that text.

Rivers and creeks

All flows are USGS provisional, read early Thursday.

• Salmon River at Pineville: 220 cfs, roughly steady over the week.
• Oswego River at Lock 7: 1060 cfs, roughly steady.
• Genesee River at Rochester: 935 cfs and rising, up 68% versus the first 24 hours of the 7-day window.
• Oak Orchard Creek near Shelby: 74.1 cfs, roughly steady.
• Sandy Creek at North Hamlin: 80.4 cfs, falling.
• Eighteenmile Creek at Burt: 109 cfs, roughly steady.
• Black River at Watertown: 3360 cfs and rising, up 238% versus the first 24 hours of the 7-day window.
• The Niagara River at Youngstown gauge had no current data.

What DEC is reporting

DEC's Region 7 hotline, dated October 9 to October 16, says the Salmon River Lower Fly Section is closed due to low water, with the Upper Fly Area open. As of October 6, DEC listed the river at 216 cfs and the water at 58 F, with anglers catching salmon throughout the river and floating eggs or beads suggested. On the Oswego River, DEC said brown trout were being caught primarily below the dam, behind the hotel and along the wall, and salmon on eggs, lures and beads. Leto Island cannot be used to access the dam, which is reached from the west (Brookfield) side.

DEC's Region 9 hotline, dated October 9 to October 16, names the Genesee River and Eighteenmile, Oak Orchard, Johnson and Sandy Creeks as best bets for the weekend. Good numbers of kings mixed with some brown trout are holding below the dams on Eighteenmile and Oak Orchard. Pier anglers at Olcott, Oak Orchard and the Genesee River are mostly catching king salmon and brown trout.

Rules to know right now

• Lake trout harvest on Lake Ontario is closed October 1 through November 30. Lake trout caught now must be released.
• On the listed tributaries, fishing from half an hour after sunset to half an hour before sunrise is prohibited September 1 through March 31. The same night closure applies on the Salmon River downstream of the Route 52 bridge in Altmar.
• The brook trout season runs April 1 through October 15.

Sources

• USGS Salmon River at Pineville - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/04250200/ (checked 2026-10-15)
• USGS Oswego River at Lock 7 - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/04249000/ (checked 2026-10-15)
• USGS Genesee River at Rochester - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/04231600/ (checked 2026-10-15)
• USGS Oak Orchard Creek near Shelby - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/04220045/ (checked 2026-10-15)
• USGS Sandy Creek - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/04220223/ (checked 2026-10-15)
• USGS Eighteenmile Creek at Burt - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/04219768/ (checked 2026-10-15)
• USGS Black River at Watertown - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/04260500/ (checked 2026-10-15)
• USGS Niagara River at Youngstown - https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=04219630&parameterCd=00060,00010,00065&period=P7D&siteStatus=all (checked 2026-10-15)
• NDBC 45215 - https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/45215.txt (checked 2026-10-15)
• NDBC 45012 - https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/45012.txt (checked 2026-10-15)
• NDBC 45135 - https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/45135.txt (checked 2026-10-15)
• NDBC 45139 - https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/45139.txt (checked 2026-10-15)
• NOAA CO-OPS Oswego - https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?date=latest&station=9052030&product=water_temperature&units=english&time_zone=lst_ldt&format=json (checked 2026-10-15)
• NOAA CO-OPS Rochester - https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?date=latest&station=9052058&product=water_temperature&units=english&time_zone=lst_ldt&format=json (checked 2026-10-15)
• GLERL CoastWatch GLSEA - https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/statistic.html (checked 2026-10-15)
• NWS nearshore forecast Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay - https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/marine/near_shore/lo/loz043.txt (checked 2026-10-15)
• DEC Region 7 hotline - https://dec.ny.gov/things-to-do/freshwater-fishing/central-new-york-hotline (checked 2026-10-15)
• DEC Region 9 hotline - https://dec.ny.gov/things-to-do/freshwater-fishing/erie-western-new-york-hotline (checked 2026-10-15)
• DEC Great Lakes tributaries regulations - https://dec.ny.gov/things-to-do/freshwater-fishing/regulations/great-lakes-tributaries (checked 2026-10-15)